For the past so many years of its planning
and designing, the objectives and goals of Kalabagh Dam (KBD) have
been shrouded in secrecy, and the Federal Government’s blind
following of the project, against the wishes of the three provinces
of the federation, has made it the most controversial issue of
national integrity.
The project is being pleaded as a turning
point in the direction of national development, whereas the
provinces see it as step towards the diversion of common resources
towards the development of one province (Punjab), leaving all the
rest to the possible negative impacts perceived from the project.
The matter becomes more complex in the
present state of better possible alternatives, having greater
development potentials and lesser negative impacts on any of the
federating units of Pakistan.
One of the reasons for creating controversy
and difference of opinion on the project is attributed to WAPDA’s
failure to adequately consult the provinces at the project planning
and design stage, since the provinces were kept in complete darkness
about the design parameters of the dam, till the completion of its
detailed design in 1984-85.
To further fuel the issue, statements from
responsible officials of the federal government, the Punjab and
WAPDA, first declared Kalabagh Dam as only a storage dam to offset
the storage loss of Tarbela and Mangla Dams, due to sedimentation.
Followed by reasons of rise in fuel costs and the consequent
increased costs due to thermal generation, pleading the ultimate
requirement of cheap hydel power. And, to further confuse the issue,
the project was declared to have plans for a Left and Right Bank
canals for irrigation purposes.
In the backdrop of all these events, the
role of beneficiaries/affectees has been totally ignored. For which,
they have every right to ask for the public disclosure of all the
relevant facts regarding selection criteria, planning parameters,
design guidelines, cost estimates, environmental and socio-economic
assessments, government’s priorities, and financing mechanism of the
planned construction. And it becomes more important for projects
towards the harnessing of shared water resources, like that of River
Indus, and for the equitable distribution of their benefits among
the federating units as well as their short and long term impacts on
their individual as well as collective lives.
Brief Introduction of Kalabagh Dam Project
Distinctive Characteristics of KBD Project
(Ref: WAPDA Reports)
Salient Features of KBD Project
Expected Benefits of the KBD Project
The Kalabagh Dam (KBD) has been pleaded by
WAPDA as the only possible choice for saving the food and energy
starved nation of Pakistan. In this respect, it has worked out the
following beneficial aspects of the project:
Enhancement in the Irrigation
Water Supply
Enhancement in the Power Generation Capacity
A Critical Analysis of the KBD Project
A lot has been said, and is still being
said, both in favour and against the KBD project, and the debate
will continue till a final decision on its fate is achieved.
In this respect, the Federal Government &
WAPDA, having all the administrative machinery at their disposal,
have conducted a number of studies and organized various seminars,
for projecting the beneficial aspects of the project and allay fears
against its negative impacts.
On the other hand, enlightened professionals and nationalist
organizations have, both individually and collectively, researched
on the subject and tried to expose the over-shadowed negative
aspects of KBD.
Whereas the few benefits of KBD project
have been extensively propagated through the wide publicity
campaigns of WAPDA, there has been a need to compile the findings of
those unknown researchers, who burnt their midnight oil to expose
the multiple destructive capacities of Kalabagh Dam.
Building upon the work done by the said
researchers, the following pages will present a critical analysis of
the KBD project, so as to enable the reader to assess for
himself/herself the ultimate utility of the project to Pakistan.
General Observations on KBD Project
KBD is the only major project in the
history of Pakistan, which has been most strongly opposed by the
three, out of the four, provinces for various reasons. In this
respect, unanimous resolutions have been passed by their elected
Provincial Assembles to reject the viability of the project. Also,
in the National Assembly and the Senate, the project has been
strongly opposed by the elected representatives.
Apart from the technical flaws, making the
construction and operation of the project an ultimate disaster, the
people of the three provinces have certain reservations against its
viability for the integrity of the country, and their common
development.
Some of these reservations are described
below:
Reservations of NWFP (Pukhtunkhwa)
Reservations of Baluchistan
Reservations of Sindh
Basic Planning Drawbacks in KBD
Project
The KBD project suffers from a multitude of
planning and design drawbacks, which makes it the least desired
development alternative, out of the various development
opportunities available in the Indus Basin.
With the KBD as a test case, the following
paragraphs exposes the planning capability of WAPDA and the
intelligence level of the decision makers at the top, who are
adamant to support and propagate the case of a technically
unfeasible dam on River Indus.
Unavailability of Enough Water in the
Indus River System
Geophysical and Geological Enviroment of
KalaBagh Dam
Location of the Dam on a Fault line
Design Drawbacks in KBD
Project
Apart from the inherent planning drawbacks,
the KBD also suffers from a variety of technical shortcomings. These
vary from selecting a site, having the poorest capacity inflow ratio
to that of proposing engineering designs making it the most
unpredictable dam to operate.
Some of these aspects of the KBD are
briefly discussed in the following paragraphs :
Site with Poor Capacity-Inflow
Ratio
Disastrous Sedimentation
Silt Clearance Problems
Uncertain & Inefficient Mode of Operation
Relation of KBD to Tarbela Dam
Backwater Effect on Ghazi-Barotha Power
Channel
Unfeasible Right Bank Canal
Short-term Impacts of Kalabagh
Dam Project
The KBD is feared to cast its sinister
shadows from its very first day of construction. They will vary from
the dislocation of a large number of people and the submergence of
their lands, houses and settlements, to the ultimate disappearance
of long established cultures and ways of life. These are discussed
as follows :
Population to be
Displaced
Area
to be Submerged
Long-term Impacts of Kalabagh
Dam Project
Like its short-term impacts, KBD is going
to have a long standing extremely injurious impact on the lives of
the people both living in the immediate vicinity of project, as well
as in the rest of the country.
The details of these impacts would vary in
nature and in magnitude, and will appear in different moments of
coming times to have devastating effects on the civilization of this
whole region.
Some of the most important long-term
impacts of the KBD are discussed below :
Increase in Surface Water Salinity
Flooding in Nowshera Valley
Drainage/Water-logging Problems in Nowshera
Failure of Mardan/Swabi SCARPs
Danger of Shallow Wells in Karak turning
Brackish
Effect on "KATCHO" in Sindh
Effect on Mangrove Forests in Sindh
Salt Water Intrusion in Sindh
Problem to Agriculture with Increased
Seepage
The
Issue of Water Distribution as a Replacement Water
Operational Problems of
Kalabagh Dam Project
The dam is designed for 28 weeks operation
(or equivalent), but the model used for analyzing this aspect of the
operation shows that the dam will not work efficiently for anything
more than 21 weeks (or possibly less). This has been studied in
detail by Saeed. A Rashed in his book "KBD, A Scientific Analysis",
and the under-mentioned paragraphs from his work will try to
summarize his findings.
Irrigation System Management
Problems
The Real Power Generation Potential of KBD
Project
Flood Regulation Risks
Economic Impact Analysis of KBD
Economic Impact on Various Provinces of Pakistan
Conclusion
Based on the above technical drawbacks, the
project is expected to get the most intense reaction from population
to be affected, and disrupt the piece and tranquility of the entire
country.
Sane considerations therefore demand that
KBD should be dropped in the face of better alternatives.
Iftikhar Ahmad
B.Eng'g (Civil),
MBA (Finance), P.G.Diploma in Public Administration
Peshawar, NWFP (Pukhtunkhwa),
Pakistan
E-mail:-
ifti@galaxycorp.com
